Possible Futures for the HVAC Industry

The game is rapidly changing for every member of the HVAC world. From contractors and cleaners to architects and engineers, everybody is feeling the effects as the green business and building revolution gains momentum, the financial and economic situation grows ever more volatile, and new technological innovations send shockwaves throughout the industry. It seems the only thing we can be sure of is that the way things were done yesterday isn’t the way they will be done tomorrow.

Naturally, such a situation begs for some carefully focused forward thinking, and a helpful example of this comes from the New Horizons Foundation (NHF), an organization composed of “HVAC and sheet metal contractors, industry partners, and leading academic researchers with one common goal: to turn good ideas into solid results that will position HVAC and sheet metal contractors as positive, knowledgeable, key participants in the construction process.” Earlier this year the NHF released a major research study that tries to predict industry trends a decade into the future. Titled “The HVAC and Sheet Metal Industry Futures Study: Industry Trends and Drivers Shaping Alternative Futures,” the study looks at the five-to-ten year horizon and, in the words of its abstract, “identifies factors and potential scenarios that may influence, and possibly define, the HVAC and sheet metal industries over the course of the next 10 years.”

The full study is available for purchase (hard copy or download) but ACHR News fills us in on the high points in two useful articles, one from September 8 and one from October 20.

The first, “HVAC Futures Study Predicts Significant Changes,” mentions the following main points from the report:

• “Green” issues, sustainability, and energy conservation will move center stage in all aspects of the construction industry, both residential and commercial.
• Partly in response to the first point above, and partly in response to a swelling supply of building inventory, retrofit and service work will experience explosive growth in demand.
• Successful competition will require mastering and using new tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM), building information systems, and lean management.

The second ACHR News article, “The Industry 10 Years from Now,” explains that the NHF report predicts a future in which the HVAC environment has experienced a dramatic diversification, with contractors participating in one of five different business models instead of the “relatively homogeneous” market we have today. Leaders in the HVAC industry “will be expected to be leaders in energy management, green building, and/or sustainability practices,” and the quality of intelligence—about new technologies, cultural differences, labor issues, and more—will attain a status equivalent to the currency of the realm.

The HVAC industry of the future will be driven by “sustainability, globalization, workforce, and technology.” The focus on greenness will continue its movement toward the center. The retrofit market will grow faster than any other segment of the nonresidential market. Training for industry workers will become much more specialized and much more of an ad hoc, just-in-time type of affair for specific projects. Business will become increasingly globalized. These changes and more will fundamentally transform the face of the HVAC industry.

Or at least that’s the NHF’s projection. Is this really what the future holds? A radically altered environment characterized by rising specialization, a fundamental focus on issues of greenness and energy conservation, a continued push toward globalization, etc.? Of course we can’t know until we get there. It remains to be seen whether new and unforeseen factors, such as the current financial and economic crisis, will derail or divert this projected future. But the NHF formulated its study from the responses of more than 75 experts from various industries, including HVAC. As such, this study represents a “best educated guess” type of offering that demands attention and respect. (For other thoughts about what the future might hold, see “Green Jobs: What They Are and Why You Should Care” and “Threat to U.S. Banking System May Paralyze Construction Market” right here at Just Venting.)

The study’s relevance for readers of this blog should be obvious. You’re the ones who will be involved in the necessary retraining and gaining of new and specialized knowledge in this possible future. You’re the ones whose businesses will compete in new ways according to new models. You’re the ones who will be designing and/or installing and/or maintaining those new green systems in those new green buildings planned with BIM and run according to lean management principles. To quote William Butler Yeats, “That is no country for old men.” To quote NHF chairman George “Butch” Welsch, “At no time in the past have challenges and opportunities been so clearly defined.” Seeing this, now’s the time to plan accordingly.