Mark Lowry
Executive Vice President
RSES: The HVACR Training Authority
2014 HVAC Predictions:
- Sales of Component/Replacement Parts Will Remain High
While equipment whole system sales are up over 2012, there are still a lot of system owners who are replacing parts and continuing to service and repair existing equipment, rather than replacing the equipment. System owners are still trying to get optimal efficiency out of their existing systems rather than just replacing them. This will continue to be mixed – buying new equipment, repairing existing systems – because last year at this time, consumer confidence was up slightly and that bore out to better equipment sales throughout 2013. But consumer confidence is down sharply in the last couple of months and they’re still fairly pessimistic about 2014, so I believe that indicates as a group they will try to keep their systems running as long as they can. - Continued Emphasis on Whole Building Performance
The momentum is building for HVAC contractors to be more concerned about the whole building performance. And at the same time, the building performance industry is trying to better understand just how much the HVAC systems are critical to that building performance. My prediction for 2014 is that we’ll see that continue on both the consumer and the service provider sides of the equation and you also see increased collaboration amongst many of the industry associations in that regard. - Regulatory Environment Will Impact HVAC Industry
There will be more regulatory activity, not legislative activity. Department of Energy efficiency standards are coming fast and furious in all different sectors and equipment types. There is a lot of rule making underway, proposed and final and out for comment about efficiency standards for both refrigeration and air conditioning and furnaces. And the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) is looking at prioritizing applications for other SNAP (Significant New Alternatives Policy) alternative refrigerants such as hydrocarbons or HFOs (hydrofluoro-olefins) but also possibly delisting some of the HFC refrigerants. The EPA would lay out a timeframe for that to happen, which would start really changing the landscape of equipment selection options.
